In the second half of 2016, the container shipping industry rebounded, and the operating conditions of various shipping companies have improved. The container shipping industry seems to have ushered in the dawn of recovery.

But just four months into 2017, there are already signs that this optimism is no longer there.

Tan Hua Joo, chief analyst of Alphaliner, one of the world's leading shipping analysts, said that in fact, the industry has faced some difficulties at the end of 2016, and in the past few months, both Maersk and CMA CGM have postponed the launch of some new ships. Due time.

Tan was the only external expert invited to the Box club conference held in Copenhagen in October last year. At the meeting, he was asked to explain his views on the container shipping industry market to the CEOs of several world's top shipping companies. This is enough to show that these bigwigs in the shipping industry value his opinion very much.

Speaking at Singapore Maritime Week, Tan said: “Demand has improved last year, with new ship deliveries reaching an all-time high and a better balance between supply and demand, which unfortunately has now disappeared. Since Freight rates have been under pressure since January this year, and there are some very large ships ready to be delivered, so the stability that market analysts are talking about will be a very distant thing in the future.”

The delivery of new ships in 2016 was 1.6 million TEU, but according to Alphaliner data, this number will increase significantly in 2017, almost doubling, more specifically, the capacity will increase by 3.1% this year, while in 2018 It will grow by 4.7%, and this data already includes the data of lay-ups, delays in new ship deliveries and ship scrapping .

Tan said: "The market recovery phenomenon at the end of 2016 was largely caused by Hanjin's bankruptcy, but this effect has disappeared, and the blank market left by Hanjin's bankruptcy will be fully digested in the next month. The supply in the market will once again be greater than the demand. And according to the latest data, the dismantling of ships is slowing down.”

Although Maersk, CMA CGM and COSCO have delayed the delivery of a series of new ships - nine 14,000TEU container ships will be delivered between the second quarter of this year and 2018, and the original delivery time is this year.

But there are still many ultra-large container ships delivered this year, such as the 20,170TEU MOL Triumph, the 20,568TEU Madrid Maersk, and the 21,100TEU OOCL Hong Kong.

The container shipping industry has been plagued by overcapacity, younger and younger ships were sent for dismantling, and many major shipping companies recorded huge deficits in 2016, and the world's largest shipping company Maersk Line recorded 376 million US dollars deficit, but its CEO S? Ren Skou expects this year the company will achieve a profit of 1 billion US dollars.

However , Tan believes that the real recovery of the container shipping market is far behind the current development direction of the industry.

Tan predicts: “ In the next 18 months, we will not see a sustainable market recovery until 2019 when supply and demand will be balanced, and the supply side will really reduce. ”